The Official Tanya Hutchens .ca

The outlook for the economy, notes Tanya Hutchens, has weakened since the last forecast. Consumer spending and exports will continue to contract in 2009. Ontario will face the slowest economic growth rate since the early 1990s. Kitchener CMA consumer bankruptcies are up in the last three months. Housing demand will decline due to the economic uncertainty and less household disposable income.

Employment

Due to economic conditions that continue to deteriorate, employment in Kitchener-Guelph is expected to decrease in 2009. Employment in the Kitchener and Guelph CMAs will decline by two per cent. As the labour force will continue to increase, the unemployment rate is expected to reach nine per cent in the Kitchener CMA and eight per cent in the Guelph CMA in 2009. Participation rates in the Kitchener CMA are the highest in the province, resulting in an unexpectedly high unemployment rate as more people compete for the few jobs available.
Full-time jobs will be most affected by the downturn in employment and, it is full-time employment that drives housing demand. On a more positive note in the Kitchener CMA, RIM is expected to hire 3,000 more employees in 2009, while OpenText has job openings for more than 200.
The goods sector will continue to contract because of the manufacturing sector and an export market which will see negative growth this year. The manufacturing sector has been contracting for the last four years and with turmoil in the automotive sector, the job shedding will continue. Guelph has sustained a harder hit from the downturn in the automotive sector than has Kitchener. Guelph manufacturing, as a percentage of total employment, has dropped from 26 per cent in the first quarter of 2008, to 20 per cent in the same period of 2009. In both CMAs, while the services sector has been supporting employment growth, lower consumer spending will weaken growth in this sector through 2009.
Older employees will be hard hit by the downturn in the economy, impacting move-up buyer demand. Some older employees will be forced into early retirement as companies downsize to trim overhead costs and to remain viable. Many of these employees will remain in the labour force. On the other hand, youth employment will fluctuate near current levels, benefiting the rental market.

Average Weekly Earnings

A rising jobless rate, less inflationary pressures and the decline in some higher paying jobs will dampen wage growth this year. Wage growth in the Kitchener CMA is expected to be near two per cent in 2009, while Guelph CMA earnings are forecast to increase by one per cent. The lower level of wage growth in 2009 will be a small contributing factor to the decline in housing demand. A plus for the rental market is the increase in the minimum wage in Ontario by eight per cent in March, enabling some people to form households.

Migration

Net migration is forecast to be 2,500 in 2009 in the Kitchener CMA and 900 in the Guelph CMA. Although slowing, inter-provincial migration to the west continues, resulting in lower net migration. Employment is a strong driver of migration to the Kitchener CMA. Kitchener has the second highest employment rate in Ontario and continues to attract households to the area. International migration is the driving force behind any migration growth in the CMAs, but does little to increase immediate ownership demand, as renting is the most prevalent tenure choice among those new to Canada.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable throughout 2009, remaining within 25-75 basis points of their current levels. Posted mortgage rates will increase very gradually during the course of 2010, reflecting a rise in government of Canada bond yields. For 2010, the one year posted mortgage rate will be in the 4.75-6.00 per cent range, while three and five year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 5.00-6.75 per cent range.

With up to 40,000 reported cases in Canada each year, says Tanya Hutchens, basement flooding is a serious problem in many parts of the country. Damages resulting from a flooded basement average between $3,000 to $5,000. These costs will likely be higher for basements with extensive finishings. Plus, in addition to the mess and inconvenience, flooding can cause health hazards, and lead to structural damage.

To help you protect your basement, the health of your family and your pocketbook, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has a number of practical steps you can take to avoid basement flooding in your home, including:

• Clean debris from your eaves troughs on a regular basis, and make sure your downspouts extend at least 1.8 meters (six feet) away from your basement wall, and drains away from your house toward the street, rear yard or back lane. If your downspouts are connected to your home’s sewer system or weeping tile, disconnect them.
• If the land around your home slopes inward, fill in and grade the ground so that it slopes away from your house for at least 1.8 metres (six feet) out from the foundation. Also, examine sidewalks, patios, decks and driveways to be sure they aren’t causing water to drain back towards your basement walls.
• If your drainage system tends to overload, consider installing one or more flood proofing devices, such as a sump pump or back flow valve. Some devices may require a plumbing permit, so check with your municipal office or a qualified plumber before carrying out any installation. Plus, keep all flood proofing devices and plumbing fixtures clean and well maintained, and have a qualified plumber inspect them regularly to ensure that they’re operating properly.
• For severe storms or power blackouts, you may want to invest in a battery-powered backup sump pump, or a water-powered pump that runs by city water flowing through the pump impeller.
• Install impermeable floor finishes such as ceramic tile to lessen the potential damage from flooding in your basement, and to make clean-up easier and less expensive. Use wall finishes that can be easily removed or are not susceptible to mold growth. In addition, make sure any furniture in the basement has legs to keep the fabric off the floor, and consider using area rugs as an alternative to broadloom for easier removal and cleaning.
• Finally, check with your insurance agent or broker to ensure that you have adequate coverage against flood damage. Keep your insurance policies and related records in a safe location that is easily accessible after an emergency, and maintain a detailed inventory of everything in your residence for use in the event of a loss.

For more information or a free copy of the “About Your House” fact sheet Avoiding Basement Flooding or other fact sheets on virtually every facet of owning, maintaining or renovating your home, ask CMHC at 1-800-668-2642 CMHC is Canada’s national housing agency and a source of objective, reliable housing expertise. This CMHC report was reviewed by Tanya Hutchens.

Every three minutes, says Tanya Hutchens, a home in Canada is burglarized. Many of those break-ins occur while the homeowners are away. But burglaries can also take place when you are at home, at any time of the night or day.

To help lock crime out of your home and keep your house and your family safe and sound, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) offers the following tips:

• Make sure your lighting and landscaping offer a clear view of your house from the street. Keep your windows and doors free of trees, bushes or other obstructions that could provide a hiding place for someone trying to break in. Entrances with good visibility and good lighting let thieves know that your home is not an easy target.
• Secure all doors at all times with good quality deadbolt locks. While horizontal deadbolts are generally more popular, vertical deadbolt locks are actually the most effective option available.
• When choosing a deadbolt, make sure that part of the bolt remains in the lock when in the locked position. The body of the lock should be made of solid steel, brass or bronze and it should have a solid or hardened ring or bevelled housing to protect the cylinder from being twisted off with a wrench. This cylinder should have at least five pins and you must be able to unlock it without keys from the inside.
• To further secure the entrances to your home, protect the hinge pins on all doors so they can’t be removed from the outside. To secure patio doors, consider installing an anti-Jimmy plate or adding safety bars and auxiliary locks.
• Use the viewer in your front door to see who is there before you open it.
• To keep would-be intruders from using your garage to enter your home, make sure everyone in your family knows to keep your garage door closed and locked at all times. Never leave the remote control for the garage on your car’s visor and don’t keep maintenance receipts or anything else with your address on it in your car.
• If you live in a remote area or spend prolonged periods of time away from home, consider investing in a burglar alarm system. A carefully selected and properly installed alarm can provide you and your loved ones with some welcome peace of mind.

For more information on how to protect your house ask CMHC at 1-800-668-2642. For more than 60 years, notes Tanya Hutchens, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canada’s national housing agency, and a source of objective, reliable housing expertise. This CMHC report was reviewed by Tanya Hutchens.